HELP US GET YOU THE DATA YOU NEED The Prison Policy Initiative specializes in producing the information that you need to support campaigns for justice in your state. Can you help us expand this work?

Thank you,
—Peter Wagner, Executive Director
 Donate

Appendix: State and federal prison projections and sources

This table, originally created for the briefing Why did prison and jail populations grow in 2022 - and what comes next? provides the furthest prison population projections we could find for state and federal prison systems and the sources in which we found them. Because the briefing is focused on post-2019 population trends, we excluded any projections produced before the COVID-19 pandemic, which dramatically changed prison populations in almost every state.

State Projection (furthest date provided) Does state project more prison growth? Projection source Source URL
Federal BOP 164,769 by 2024 Yes Page 4 of the US DOJ’s “Fiscal Year 2024 Performance Budget Congressional Submission, Federal Prison System Buildings and Facilities” (March 2023) https://www.justice.gov/d9/2023-03/bop_bf_fy_2024_pb_narrative_omb_cleared_3.21.2023.pdf
Alaska None located
Arizona None located
Arkansas 19,743 by December 2029 Yes Page 12 of Division of Correction “Board Report,” Sept. 2023 https://doc.arkansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/Division-of-Correction-Directors-Board-Report_-September-2023.pdf
California Roughly 82,000 by 2027 No Estimated from Figure 2 of the California Legislative Analyst’s Office report, “The 2023-24 Budget: The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation” https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4686
Colorado 21,776 at end of Fiscal Year 2029. “The total prison population is expected to increase 6.9% between the ends of FY 2022 and FY 2023, from 16,391 inmates to 17,481. The growth rate is expected to moderate in late FY 2024, continuing throughout the forecast horizon. By the end of FY 2029, the population is expected to reach 21,776 inmates, an increase of 33.1%.” Yes Table 1 of CO DCJ “Adult and Juvenile Correctional Populations Forecasts” (Jan. 2023) https://cdpsdocs.state.co.us/ors/data/PPP/2023-PPP.pdf
Connecticut None located
Delaware None located
Florida Between 107,700 and 123,600 by 2042. Legislature’s Office of Econ and Demographic Research Yes Page 8 of consulting firm KPMG’s report to the Florida Department of Management Services, “Multi-Year Department of Corrections Master Plan” (Nov. 2023) https://www.flsenate.gov/Committees/Show/ACJ/MeetingPacket/5963/10510_MeetingPacket_5963_2.pdf
Georgia None located
Hawaii 788 in 2032 in Oahu Community Correctional Center (one of four state facilities), which reflects a steady decline overall. No statewide projection located. No “Oahu Community Correctional Center Population Forecast Final Report” by Pulitzer/Bogard & Associates (Aug. 2021) https://dps.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/OCCC-Forecast-Report-FINAL-August-2021.pdf
Idaho 1.3% annual growth predicted as of 2021; this didn’t include changes due to COVID-19 but the forecast shows general upward trend. Yes “Justice Reinvestment in Idaho: Impact at Seven Years” (Feb. 2022) https://www.idoc.idaho.gov/content/document/2022_jri_impact_final
Illinois ~31,500 through 2035 Yes Estimated from the “projection” graphic from the Illinois Sentencing Policy Advisory Council’s “2023 Baseline Prison Projection” https://spac.illinois.gov/publications/prison-population-projections
Indiana None located
Iowa 9,310 by 2031 Yes Page 10 of the Legislative Services Agency’s Dec. 2022 Fiscal Research Brief on “Prison population and capacity” https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/FRB/1294232.pdf
Kansas 9,353 by Fiscal Year 2031 Yes Kansas Sentencing Commission’s “Fiscal Year 2023 Prison Populaton Projection” report https://cdn.oits.ks.gov/media/docs/sentencinglibraries/reports/fy-2023-prison-population-projection-report.pdf?sfvrsn=435959a8_3
Kentucky None located
Louisiana None located
Maine None located
Maryland None located
Massachusetts None located
Michigan 35,076 by Dec. 2027 Yes Table 1 of the “Prison Population Projection Report” (Nov. 2023) https://www.michigan.gov/corrections/-/media/Project/Websites/corrections/Files/Legislative-Reports/2023/Prison-Population-Projection-Report.pdf
Minnesota 9,000 in 2025 Yes Article in the Minnesota Reformer, “State prison population expected to shoot up as pandemic court backlog eases” (March 24, 2023) by Deena Winter https://minnesotareformer.com/2023/03/24/state-prison-population-expected-to-shoot-up-as-pandemic-court-backlog-eases/
Mississippi 22,500 by the end of 2023. “If this growth continues at the same rate through 2023, that population would surpass 22,500 for the first time since 2010.” Yes Article in Mississippi Today, “Mississippi prions may soon exceed capacity” (Dec. 6, 2022) by Jerry Mitchell https://mississippitoday.org/2022/12/06/mississippi-prisons-capacity/
Missouri None located
Montana None located
Nebraska None located
Nevada Female population will grow 9.5% through Fiscal Year 2025 while the male population will grow 4% over the same time. Yes Nevada DOC’s “Biennial Prison Population and Bed Projection” https://doc.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/docnvgov/content/About/Statistics/Forecast_and_Planning/B2023-82-LA.pdf
New Hampshire None located
New Jersey None located
New Mexico “High counts” through 2032 (4,822). These generally show a slow decline for males and slight increase for females through 2032. No for males, yes for females New Mexico Sentencing Commission, “New Mexico Prison Population Forecast: FY 2022-FY2032” (July 2022) https://nmsc.unm.edu/reports/2022/new-mexico-prison-population-forecast-fy-2022-2032.pdf
New York None located
North Carolina 33,680 by 2032 Yes Table 1 of “Prison population projections: Fiscal year 2023 to fiscal year 2032” from the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission (Feb. 2023) https://digital.ncdcr.gov/Documents/Detail/prison-population-projections-fiscal-year-…-to-fiscal-year-…-2023-2032/5768038
North Dakota 2,185 by 2030 (This is the total anticipated bed need middle estimate minus the 3% “classification and peaking” factor the analysts added.) Figure 0.5 p. 56 Yes Figure 0.5 on page 56 of “Master Plan 2021-2030” from The Moss Group (consulting firm) https://www.docr.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/Reports_Public/ND DOCR Master Plan 2021-2030.pdf
Ohio None located
Oklahoma None located
Oregon 13,397 in 2033 (an increase of 9.4%) Yes Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, “Correctons Population Forecast” for October 2023 https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/DOC-forecast-202310.pdf
Pennsylvania None located
Rhode Island 2,932 by 2034. Cites a report by consultants JFA Associates, “which sees the Rhode Island population behind bars rising 2.5% annually over the next decade.” Yes Article in the Providence Journal, “Forecast: RI prison population will grow almost 30% by 2034. What’s driving the increase?” (Dec. 5, 2023) by Patrick Anderson, citing RI DOC statistics for “last week.” https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/state/2023/12/05/ri-prison-population-to-climb-30-percent-in-next-decade-after-falling-to-35-year-low-during-pandemic/71720651007/
South Carolina None located
South Dakota 4,296 by 2041. “Within the next 20 years the total population is expected to increase by 26%.” Yes Figure 4 from the SD DOC’s “2022 Statistical Report Population Projections” https://doc.sd.gov/documents/SDDOC 2022 Statistical Report.pdf
Tennessee None located
Texas 6% increase between 2023-2025. The populations discussed in the report are not measured the same way as those used in the Bureau of Justice Statistics publication, so are not directly comparable. Yes Texas Legislative Budget Board, “Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections: Fiscal Years 2023 to 2028” (Feb. 2023) https://www.lbb.texas.gov/Documents/Publications/Policy_Report/7688_Population_Projections_February_2023.pdf
Utah None located
Vermont None located
Virginia 26,986 by end of Fiscal Year 2028. The state predicts more jail growth than prison growth. Yes Virginia Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security, “Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2023 to FY2028)” (Oct. 2022) https://rga.lis.virginia.gov/Published/2022/RD622
Washington None located
West Virginia None located
Wisconsin 23,249 Average Daily Population for Fiscal Year 2024-25 (ends June 30, 2025) Yes Paper 295 from Legislative Fiscal Bureau (June 6, 2023) on “Inmate Populations, Prison Contract Bed Funding, and Population and Inflationary Costs (Corrections - Adult Institutions)” https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lfb/budget/2023_25_biennial_budget/bpbd/107_june_8/108_corrections_adult_institution
Wyoming None located

Stay Informed

Get the latest updates:


And our other newsletters:







Stay Informed


Get the latest updates:



Share on 𝕏 Donate