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Mass Incarceration, COVID-19, and Community Spread

by Gregory Hooks and Wendy Sawyer
December 2020


Appendix Table 2: Impact of mass incarceration on all 179 BEA economic areas, by additional COVID-19 confirmed cases (May 1 - August 1)

BEA Economic Area Net additional cases Total population Net additional cases per 100,000 residents
Los Angeles‑Long Beach‑Riverside, CA 94,221.8 20,678,296 455.7
New York‑Newark‑Bridgeport, NY‑NJ‑CT‑PA 64,000.1 23,602,788 271.2
Chicago‑Naperville‑Michigan City, IL‑IN‑WI 47,690.6 10,457,692 456
Miami‑Fort Lauderdale‑Miami Beach, FL 40,823.2 6,855,487 595.5
Houston‑Baytown‑Huntsville, TX 26,005.6 7,809,735 333
Orlando‑The Villages, FL 25,108.0 5,072,299 495
Philadelphia‑Camden‑Vineland, PA‑NJ‑DE‑MD 23,700.9 7,145,289 331.7
Washington‑Baltimore‑Northern Virginia, DC‑MD‑VA‑WV 21,580.5 10,040,033 214.9
Atlanta‑Sandy Springs‑Gainesville, GA‑AL 19,339.6 8,014,119 241.3
Dallas‑Fort Worth, TX 14,526.0 8,892,231 163.4
San Jose‑San Francisco‑Oakland, CA 14,279.6 10,432,077 136.9
Tampa‑St. Petersburg‑Clearwater, FL 12,452.6 3,030,047 411
Raleigh‑Durham‑Cary, NC 6,902.8 3,512,772 196.5
Phoenix‑Mesa‑Scottsdale, AZ 6,895.1 5,260,048 131.1
Boston‑Worcester‑Manchester, MA‑NH 6,372.4 8,594,883 74.1
McAllen‑Edinburg‑Pharr, TX 5,715.4 1,356,787 421.2
Fresno‑Madera, CA 5,298.3 1,761,235 300.8
Charlotte‑Gastonia‑Salisbury, NC‑SC 4,845.3 3,179,708 152.4
Baton Rouge‑Pierre Part, LA 4,549.0 861,346 528.1
Cleveland‑Akron‑Elyria, OH 4,448.1 4,533,215 98.1
Memphis,TN‑MS‑AR 4,356.6 2,047,494 212.8
Indianapolis‑Anderson‑Columbus, IN 4,323.4 3,556,695 121.6
Sarasota‑Bradenton‑Venice, FL 4,080.4 2,081,951 196
Detroit‑Warren‑Flint, MI 3,716.8 6,837,098 54.4
Jacksonville, FL 3,665.0 1,884,231 194.5
Richmond, VA 3,497.8 1,745,675 200.4
Columbus‑Marion‑Chillicothe, OH 3,458.3 2,850,691 121.3
Jackson‑Yazoo City, MS 3,326.8 1,661,397 200.2
Hartford‑West Hartford‑Willimantic, CT 3,134.2 2,295,996 136.5
San Antonio, TX 2,980.9 2,736,961 108.9
St. Louis‑St. Charles‑Farmington, MO‑IL 2,808.1 3,388,001 82.9
Gainesville, FL 2,668.2 501,152 532.4
Milwaukee‑Racine‑Waukesha, WI 2,531.2 2,362,430 107.1
Birmingham‑Hoover‑Cullman, AL 2,507.5 1,772,590 141.5
Macon‑Warner Robins‑Fort Valley, GA 2,327.2 672,993 345.8
Nashville‑Davidson‑Murfreesboro‑Columbia, TN 2,264.3 3,095,166 73.2
Columbia‑Newberry, SC 2,203.5 1,116,404 197.4
Seattle‑Tacoma‑Olympia, WA 2,135.0 5,168,694 41.3
Virginia Beach‑Norfolk‑Newport News, VA‑NC 2,073.0 1,921,391 107.9
New Orleans‑Metairie‑Bogalusa, LA 2,052.2 1,706,546 120.3
Lafayette‑Acadiana, LA 2,003.6 867,513 231
Albany, GA 1,958.9 607,225 322.6
Greenville‑Spartanburg‑Anderson, SC 1,942.1 1,472,084 131.9
Savannah‑Hinesville‑Fort Stewart, GA 1,823.2 902,118 202.1
Panama City‑Lynn Haven, FL 1,776.0 305,449 581.5
Pensacola‑Ferry Pass‑Brent, FL 1,759.2 748,559 235
Harrisburg‑Carlisle‑Lebanon, PA 1,723.0 2,231,844 77.2
Austin‑Round Rock, TX 1,683.2 2,181,797 77.1
Sacramento‑Arden‑Arcade‑Truckee, CA‑NV 1,485.2 2,925,434 50.8
Greensboro‑Winston‑Salem‑High Point, NC 1,434.5 2,019,723 71
Louisville‑Elizabethtown‑Sconsburg, KY‑IN 1,357.9 1,656,018 82
Minneapolis‑St. Paul‑St. Cloud, MN‑WI 1,351.1 5,533,996 24.4
Tallahassee, FL 1,349.5 543,410 248.3
Huntsville‑Decatur, AL 1,343.1 1,136,616 118.2
Killeen‑Temple Fort Hood, TX 1,324.9 747,217 177.3
Cincinnati‑Middletown‑Wilmington, OH‑KY‑IN 1,289.8 2,392,211 53.9
Corpus Christi‑Kingsville, TX 1,281.7 888,458 144.3
Kansas City‑Overland Park‑Kansas City, MO‑KS 1,211.5 2,741,889 44.2
Augusta‑Richmond County, GA‑SC 1,066.7 649,218 164.3
Myrtle Beach‑Conway‑Georgetown, SC 1,026.4 1,148,965 89.3
Portland‑Vancouver‑Beaverton, OR‑WA 1,009.5 3,341,379 30.2
Pittsburgh‑New Castle, PA 1,007.1 2,850,837 35.3
Montgomery‑Alexander City, AL 1,006.4 552,240 182.2
Shreveport‑Bossier City‑Minden, LA 924.1 557,323 165.8
Grand Rapids‑Muskegon‑Holland, MI 902.9 1,992,050 45.3
Knoxville‑Sevierville‑La Follette, TN 893.8 1,250,325 71.5
Oklahoma City‑Shawnee, OK 878.4 2,192,918 40.1
Little Rock‑North Little Rock‑Pine Bluff, AR 872.4 1,572,035 55.5
Columbus‑Auburn‑Opelika, GA‑AL 838.2 494,720 169.4
Johnson City‑Kingsport‑Bristol (Tri‑Cities), TN‑VA 769.2 860,786 89.4
Denver‑Aurora‑Boulder, CO 753.3 4,558,349 16.5
Charleston‑North Charleston, SC 743.8 796,815 93.3
Lexington‑Fayette‑Frankfort‑Richmond, KY 740.7 1,555,777 47.6
Tulsa‑Bartlesville, OK 657.0 1,402,716 46.8
Monroe‑Bastrop, LA 640.4 337,021 190
Mobile‑Daphne‑Fairhope, AL 591.7 765,497 77.3
Tucson, AZ 544.5 1,192,585 45.7
Dayton‑Springfield‑Greenville, OH 497.0 1,370,927 36.3
Greenville, NC 489.4 726,411 67.4
Beaumont‑Port Arthur, TX 489.1 466,693 104.8
Rochester‑Batavia‑Seneca Falls, NY 487.7 1,517,322 32.1
Lake Charles‑Jennings, LA 478.9 351,954 136.1
Syracuse‑Auburn, NY 475.2 1,994,448 23.8
Dover, DE 459.1 618,534 74.2
Dothan‑Enterprise‑Ozark, AL 456.8 313,919 145.5
Fort Wayne‑Huntington‑Auburn, IN 434.1 803,095 54.1
Asheville‑Brevard, NC 389.8 723,270 53.9
Peoria‑Canton, IL 329.7 868,156 38
Madison‑Baraboo, WI 319.4 1,223,576 26.1
State College, PA 318.4 794,772 40.1
Evansville, IN‑KY 316.0 770,228 41
Kennewick‑Richland‑Pasco, WA 314.9 598,390 52.6
Colorado Springs, CO 299.2 779,130 38.4
Lubbock‑Levelland, TX 297.9 466,262 63.9
Columbia, MO 293.6 519,968 56.5
Springfield, IL 292.3 618,179 47.3
Scranton‑Wilkes‑Barre, PA 291.0 649,802 44.8
Roanoke, VA 282.9 826,022 34.2
Appleton‑Oshkosh‑Neenah, WI 277.6 870,776 31.9
Midland‑Odessa, TX 276.8 659,159 42
El Paso, TX 276.0 1,208,018 22.8
Albany‑Schenectady‑Amsterdam, NY 272.0 1,386,317 19.6
Gulfport‑Biloxi‑Pascagoula, MS 269.9 433,378 62.3
Des Moines‑Newton‑Pella, IA 267.4 1,316,289 20.3
Salt Lake City‑Ogden‑Clearfield, UT 262.6 2,836,584 9.3
South Bend‑Mishawaka, IN‑MI 239.0 960,164 24.9
Charleston, WV 237.0 1,163,888 20.4
Cedar Rapids, IA 222.0 536,484 41.4
Buffalo‑Niagara‑Cattaraugus, NY 210.6 1,444,680 14.6
Omaha‑Council Bluffs‑Fremont, NE‑IA 170.1 1,115,584 15.2
Las Vegas‑Paradise‑Pahrump, NV 163.3 2,614,169 6.2
Davenport‑Moline‑Rock Island, IA‑IL 153.3 486,334 31.5
Toledo‑Fremont,OH 149.8 979,303 15.3
Albuquerque, NM 147.4 953,990 15.5
Tupelo, MS 144.0 549,141 26.2
Abilene, TX 139.9 229,642 60.9
Wichita‑Winfield, KS 135.7 1,085,754 12.5
Texarkana, TX‑Texarkana, AR 130.6 314,091 41.6
Boise City‑Nampa, ID 124.9 798,302 15.7
Champaign‑Urbana, IL 113.1 547,732 20.6
Amarillo, TX 109.7 503,671 21.8
Springfield, MO 105.3 1,040,357 10.1
Erie, PA 95.4 500,725 19
Harrisonburg, VA 84.8 327,344 25.9
Clarksburg, WV+Morgantown, WV 80.7 346,893 23.3
Fayetteville‑Springdale‑Rogers, AR‑MO 80.4 590,637 13.6
Reno‑Sparks, NV 79.3 736,401 10.8
Jonesboro, AR 69.9 314,001 22.3
Sioux City‑Vermillion, IA‑NE‑SD 66.6 377,219 17.6
Paducah, KY‑IL 62.4 243,389 25.6
Fort Smith, AR‑OK 60.1 341,675 17.6
Lincoln, NE 58.9 433,545 13.6
Cape Girardeau‑Jackson, MO‑IL 53.4 297,625 17.9
Traverse City, MI 44.7 284,840 15.7
Pueblo, CO 42.0 244,628 17.2
Spokane, WA 34.6 890,628 3.9
La Crosse, WI‑MN 34.1 262,475 13
Wichita Falls, TX 32.0 187,998 17
Marinette, WI‑MI 29.4 327,294 9
Eugene‑Springfield, OR 28.7 840,261 3.4
Pendleton‑Hermiston, OR 26.9 147,565 18.2
Sioux Falls, SD 26.6 522,564 5.1
Wausau‑Merrill, WI 24.3 518,243 4.7
Topeka, KS 23.7 479,039 4.9
Portland‑Lewiston‑South Portland, ME 21.8 1,009,674 2.2
San Angelo, TX 19.6 150,631 13
Honolulu, HI 18.9 1,422,029 1.3
Joplin, MO 15.7 370,331 4.2
Duluth, MN‑WI 14.2 352,749 4
Santa Fe‑Espanola, NM 12.1 276,447 4.4
Idaho Falls‑Blackfoot, ID 12.1 358,863 3.4
Twin Falls, ID 10.7 194,697 5.5
Wenatchee, WA 10.5 273,078 3.8
Waterloo‑Cedar Falls, IA 9.5 225,921 4.2
Salina, KS 8.5 189,056 4.5
Kearney, NE 7.0 328,178 2.1
Bend‑Prineville, OR 6.8 241,191 2.8
Forgo‑Wahpeton, ND‑MN 6.4 327,423 2
Redding, CA 5.6 361,246 1.6
Helena, MT 5.0 281,436 1.8
Mason City, IA 4.7 155,260 3
Burlington‑South Burlington, VT 4.7 396,062 1.2
Casper, WY 4.2 370,320 1.1
Farmington, NM 3.5 224,636 1.6
Lewiston, ID‑WA 3.3 93,538 3.5
Alpena, MI 3.0 228,950 1.3
Scotts Bluff, NE 2.9 90,092 3.2
Grand Forks, ND‑MN 2.7 208,430 1.3
Bismarck, ND 2.2 203,971 1.1
Rapid City, SD 1.7 238,686 0.7
Minot, ND 1.6 166,435 1
Anchorage, AK 1.5 730,318 0.2
Billings, MT 1.3 369,157 0.4
Missoula, MT 1.2 320,831 0.4
Great Falls, MT 1.1 147,904 0.7
Bangor, ME 0.8 323,139 0.3
Aberdeen, SD 0.3 82,805 0.4
Flagstaff, AZ 0.3 147,567 0.2
San Diego‑Carlsbad‑San Marcos, CA* 0.0 3,302,833 0

*San Diego is an anomaly. San Diego County is the sole county in the San Diego‑Carlsbad‑San Marcos, CA BEA economic area. Because this is a metro county, incarceration in the county is ignored when estimating additions to the COVID‑19 caseload. (This is because, in metro counties, the effect of incarceration at the county level was not found to be statistically significant). The measure of mass incarceration at the BEA area level excludes incarceration in the county; this results in San Diego County having zero (0) people incarcerated in the BEA area. This quirk in measurement understates the impact of mass incarceration in this county. The “average” metro county saw an additional 109 cases per 100,000 residents. If San Diego — with a population of 3.3 million — was average in this respect, roughly 3,600 cases of COVID‑19 would have been linking to mass incarceration.

For details about the data sources and methodology, see Mass Incarceration, COVID-19, and Community Spread: Methodological Appendix [PDF] by Gregory Hooks.

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